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The historical change of spatial patterns of China’s major crops and policy impactions
基本信息

报告人:Dr Zhanli Sun

主持人:方兰 教授

时间:2019-10-25 10:30:00

地点:博物馆附楼三层S314会议室

报告语言:英语/中文

主办单位:西北历史环境与经济社会发展研究院

报告人简介
    孙战利博士是德国莱布尼兹转型经济农业发展研究所(IAMO)高级研究员,中国研究组的负责人。孙博士在美国及德国有多年工作研究经历,长期致力于土地系统和自然资源管理等相关方面研究。他以多样化的研究思想和方法,如元胞自动机、多主体模型、系统动力学、空间统计分析,系统动力学,贝叶斯网络等为特长,同时拥有地理信息科学、土地利用科学、空间经济学、日然资源管理等跨学科的学术背景,当前主要从事土地经济学及农村可持续发展方面的研究。在Nature(自然), Global Environmental Change(全球环境变化), Land Use Policy(土地利用政策), Environmental Modelling & Software(环境建模与软件), Earth’s Further(地球未来)等国际高影响力刊物发表论文50余篇,他引超过2300余次。
    Dr. Zhanli Sun is a senior researcher and coordinator of the China Research Group at Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Germany. He received PhD in Geography and have a research focus on the land systems. He employs complex system thinking and various methods, such as agent based models, spatial econometrics, and Bayesian networks, in examining land system changes and land users’ decision making in China, Southeast Asia, Argentina, etc. He published over 50 academic publications (with 2300+ citations; h-index 18) in renowned journals including Nature, Global Environmental Change, Land Use Policy, Environmental Modelling & Software etc.
报告主要内容

   1979年农村改革以来,我国农地制度在土地利用强度、空间配置格局、土地使用权设置等方面发生了根本性变化。首先,对我国耕地和主要农作物的空间配置进行了分析。具体来说,我们利用1980年至2011年全国县级的年度农业统计数据,分析了五种主要作物(水稻、玉米、小麦、大豆和马铃薯)的总体农田和收获面积的空间聚类和不平等的变化。在此之后,我们使用空间面板回归来量化这五种作物的主要种植中心所观察到的耕地变化的决定因素。结果表明,随着时间的推移,主要作物的耕地面积和收获面积确实变得更加均匀。更高的人口与更多的地区致力于这些作物,而国内生产总值的增长和增加的道路密度消极地影响了收获地区的范围,可以说反映了快速的城市化和经济发展。总的来说,增加集中可能提供专业化和积极集聚效应方面的机会,但由于越来越依赖较少的作物和较少的生产地点,可能会降低粮食系统的弹性和农业可持续性。

  Since the rural reform started in 1979, China’s agricultural land system has experienced fundamental changes in land use intensity, spatial configuration pattern, and land tenure settings. Firstly, the spatial configuration of China’s cropland and major crops were analysed. Specifically, we used annual agricultural statistics at the county level from 1980 to 2011 for all of China to analyse the changes in spatial clustering and inequality of overall cropland and of the harvested areas of the five major crops (rice, maize, wheat, soybean, and potato). After that, we used spatial panel regressions to quantify the determinants of the observed changes cultivated areas for the major cultivation centres of the five crops. The results showed that the cropland area and harvested areas of the major crops indeed became more homogeneous over time. Higher population was associated with more areas dedicated to these crops while GDP growth and increasing road density negatively affected the extent of the harvested areas, arguably mirroring the rapid urbanization and economic development. Overall, increasing concentration may offer opportunities in specialization and positive agglomeration effects but can reduce the resilience of food systems and agricultural sustainability due to increasing reliance on fewer crops and fewer places of production.


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